Czechia 2–0 Slovakia: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slovakia

Zdeněk Ondrášek 55'

Tomáš Souček 17'

11/18/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 6Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Czechia41%

×Draw27%

Slovakia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.11

Czechia

1.30

Slovakia

1.11

Czechia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.60

creates per match

0.82

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Czechia

1.60

Slovakia

0.82

allows per match

Czechia

1.40

Slovakia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

68%

Czechia or Slovakia

73%

Draw or Slovakia

59%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

18%

Slovakia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

73%

Czechia 2+ goals

37%

Czechia 3+ goals

14%

Slovakia 1+ goals

67%

Slovakia 2+ goals

30%

Slovakia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

56%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.60 + Slovakia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Slovakia attack 0.82 + Czechia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Czechia scores more

41%

level

27%

Slovakia scores more

32%

Czechia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Tomáš Souček

Czechia · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

Tomáš Souček↳ Jakub Jankto

46'

Václav Černý← Lukáš Masopust

46'

Tomáš Koubek← Tomáš Vaclík

55'

Zdeněk Ondrášek↳ Václav Černý

62'

Patrik Hrošovský← Stanislav Lobotka

62'

Pavol Šafranko← Róbert Mak

62'

Tomáš Suslov← Albert Rusnák

66'

Matěj Vydra← Zdeněk Ondrášek

67'

Jan Gregus← Juraj Kucka

74'

Jan Kopic← Jakub Jankto

81'

Ivan Schranz← Michal Ďuriš

88'

Antonín Barák← Vladimír Darida

90+3'

Patrik Hrošovský

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaSlovakia

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots7

2Corners4

21Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

523Total Passes507

430Accurate Passes413

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3