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Czech Republic W vs Slovakia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Czech Republic W
Czech Republic W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovakia W
Slovakia W
A. Staskova 88'
A. Pochmanova 84'
D. Bartovicova 77' (OG)
7/14/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Czech Republic W54%
×Draw23%
Slovakia W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czech Republic W
1.86
Slovakia W
1.15

Czech Republic W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Czech Republic W
1.29
Slovakia W
0.44

allows per match

Czech Republic W
1.86
Slovakia W
2.44

finishing

Czech Republic W+0.00on par
Slovakia W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic W ↓

Slovakia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Czech Republic W or draw
77%
Czech Republic W or Slovakia W
77%
Draw or Slovakia W
46%

Winning margin

Czech Republic W wins by 2+
31%
Slovakia W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Czech Republic W 1+ goals
84%
Czech Republic W 2+ goals
55%
Czech Republic W 3+ goals
28%
Slovakia W 1+ goals
68%
Slovakia W 2+ goals
32%
Slovakia W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic W (draw refunded)
70%
Slovakia W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Slovakia W away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic W attack 1.29 + Slovakia W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Slovakia W attack 0.44 + Czech Republic W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Czech Republic W scores more
54%
level
23%
Slovakia W scores more
23%

Czech Republic W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Czech Republic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
K. Dubcova← K. Dubcova
61'
A. Staskova← A. Staskova
61'
A. Dlaskova← A. Dlaskova
61'
K. Svitkova← K. Svitkova
62'
A. Dedinova
64'
L. Zemberyova← L. Zemberyova
77'
D. BartovicovaOwn goal
78'
K. Cahynova← K. Kotrcova
78'
S. Semanova← S. Semanova
83'
K. Ruzickova← K. Cvrckova
84'
A. Pochmanova
88'
A. Staskova
89'
M. Mikolajova← P. Mudrakova
89'
K. Vredikova← K. Vredikova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czech Republic W vs Slovakia W

Czech Republic W beat Slovakia W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on July 14, 2023.

Goals: D. Bartovicova (77' o.g.), A. Pochmanova (84'), A. Staskova (88').

The match was played at Stadion v Městských sadech in Opava.