Czech Republic W 3–3 Hungary W: Result & Stats

Czech Republic W

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Hungary W

A. Staskova 84', 24', 3'

S. Pusztai 71', 55'

F. Vago 47' (pen)

10/7/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Czech Republic W20%

×Draw18%

Hungary W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czech Republic WExpected goals in this matchHungary W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.58

Czech Republic W

1.43

Hungary W

2.58

Hungary W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

3.29

1.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Czech Republic W

1.29

Hungary W

3.29

allows per match

Czech Republic W

1.86

Hungary W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czech Republic W+0.00on par

Hungary W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic W ↓

Hungary W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Czech Republic W or draw

38%

Czech Republic W or Hungary W

82%

Draw or Hungary W

80%

Winning margin

Czech Republic W wins by 2+

Hungary W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Czech Republic W 1+ goals

76%

Czech Republic W 2+ goals

42%

Czech Republic W 3+ goals

17%

Hungary W 1+ goals

92%

Hungary W 2+ goals

72%

Hungary W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic W (draw refunded)

25%

Hungary W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Hungary W away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic W attack 1.29 + Hungary W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hungary W attack 3.29 + Czech Republic W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Czech Republic W scores more

20%

level

18%

Hungary W scores more

62%

Hungary W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hungary W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Staskova

24'

A. Staskova

27'

V. Szabo

42'

A. CsikiMissed penalty

46'

Z. Kajan← E. Papai

46'

S. Necidova← L. Jelinkova

46'

E. Sonntagova← E. Sonntagova

46'

S. Pusztai← S. Pusztai

46'

D. Zeller← D. Zeller

46'

A. Starova

47'

F. VagoPenalty

55'

S. Pusztai

60'

K. Svitkova← M. Dubcova

60'

M. Mrazova← M. Mrazova

64'

H. Nemeth

71'

S. Pusztai

72'

M. Radova← M. Radova

73'

T. Krejcirikova

79'

L. Martinkova← L. Martinkova

84'

A. Staskova

87'

L. Jelinkova

90+2'

L. Nemeth← L. Nemeth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff