Czech Republic U23 W 4–0 Estonia W: Result & Stats

Czech Republic U23 W

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Estonia W

4/10/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Czech Republic U23 W85%

×Draw12%

Estonia W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czech Republic U23 WExpected goals in this matchEstonia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

0.39

Czech Republic U23 W

2.61

Estonia W

0.39

Czech Republic U23 W creates 569% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

0.78

0.00

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Czech Republic U23 W

3.00

Estonia W

0.78

allows per match

Czech Republic U23 W

0.00

Estonia W

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czech Republic U23 W+0.00on par

Estonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic U23 W ↓

Estonia W →

0–05%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Czech Republic U23 W or draw

96%

Czech Republic U23 W or Estonia W

88%

Draw or Estonia W

15%

Winning margin

Czech Republic U23 W wins by 2+

63%

Estonia W wins by 2+

Team goals

Czech Republic U23 W 1+ goals

93%

Czech Republic U23 W 2+ goals

73%

Czech Republic U23 W 3+ goals

47%

Estonia W 1+ goals

32%

Estonia W 2+ goals

Estonia W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Czech Republic U23 W (draw refunded)

96%

Estonia W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic U23 W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Estonia W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic U23 W attack 3.00 + Estonia W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.61

Estonia W attack 0.78 + Czech Republic U23 W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Czech Republic U23 W scores more

85%

level

12%

Estonia W scores more

Czech Republic U23 W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Czech Republic U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff