Czech Republic U19 2–1 North Macedonia U19

Czech Republic U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

North Macedonia U19

V. Kušej 54'

T. Zlatohlávek 24'

M. Gjorgjievski 67'

11/17/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Czech Republic U1968%

×Draw18%

North Macedonia U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czech Republic U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.00

Czech Republic U19

2.38

North Macedonia U19

1.00

Czech Republic U19 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Czech Republic U19

2.75

North Macedonia U19

1.25

allows per match

Czech Republic U19

0.75

North Macedonia U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czech Republic U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Czech Republic U19 or draw

86%

Czech Republic U19 or North Macedonia U19

82%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

32%

Winning margin

Czech Republic U19 wins by 2+

45%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Czech Republic U19 1+ goals

91%

Czech Republic U19 2+ goals

68%

Czech Republic U19 3+ goals

42%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

63%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

26%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic U19 (draw refunded)

82%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic U19 attack 2.75 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

North Macedonia U19 attack 1.25 + Czech Republic U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Czech Republic U19 scores more

68%

level

18%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

14%

Czech Republic U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Czech Republic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Zlatohlávek

54'

V. Kušej

67'

M. Gjorgjievski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff