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Czech Republic U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Czech Republic U19
Czech Republic U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Luxembourg U19
Luxembourg U19
D. Heidenreich 56'
O. Pachlopník 4'
Y. Schaus 16'
11/14/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Czech Republic U1983%
×Draw12%
Luxembourg U195%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czech Republic U19
2.77
Luxembourg U19
0.57

Czech Republic U19 creates 386% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Czech Republic U19
2.75
Luxembourg U19
0.40

allows per match

Czech Republic U19
0.75
Luxembourg U19
2.80

finishing

Czech Republic U19+0.00on par
Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Czech Republic U19 or draw
95%
Czech Republic U19 or Luxembourg U19
88%
Draw or Luxembourg U19
17%

Winning margin

Czech Republic U19 wins by 2+
62%
Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Czech Republic U19 1+ goals
94%
Czech Republic U19 2+ goals
76%
Czech Republic U19 3+ goals
51%
Luxembourg U19 1+ goals
43%
Luxembourg U19 2+ goals
11%
Luxembourg U19 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic U19 (draw refunded)
94%
Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic U19 attack 2.75 + Luxembourg U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.77

Luxembourg U19 attack 0.40 + Czech Republic U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Czech Republic U19 scores more
83%
level
12%
Luxembourg U19 scores more
5%

Czech Republic U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Czech Republic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
O. Pachlopník
16'
Y. Schaus
56'
D. Heidenreich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czech Republic U19 vs Luxembourg U19

Czech Republic U19 beat Luxembourg U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 14, 2018.

Goals: O. Pachlopník (4'), Y. Schaus (16'), D. Heidenreich (56').

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.