Czech Republic U19 1–2 Italy U19: Result & Stats

Czech Republic U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Italy U19

3/23/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Bluenergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Czech Republic U1939%

×Draw26%

Italy U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czech Republic U19Expected goals in this matchItaly U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.29

Czech Republic U19

1.37

Italy U19

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.05

creates per match

1.77

0.80

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Czech Republic U19

2.05

Italy U19

1.77

allows per match

Czech Republic U19

0.80

Italy U19

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czech Republic U19+0.00on par

Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic U19 ↓

Italy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Czech Republic U19 or draw

65%

Czech Republic U19 or Italy U19

74%

Draw or Italy U19

61%

Winning margin

Czech Republic U19 wins by 2+

18%

Italy U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Czech Republic U19 1+ goals

75%

Czech Republic U19 2+ goals

40%

Czech Republic U19 3+ goals

16%

Italy U19 1+ goals

72%

Italy U19 2+ goals

37%

Italy U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic U19 attack 2.05 + Italy U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Italy U19 attack 1.77 + Czech Republic U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Czech Republic U19 scores more

39%

level

26%

Italy U19 scores more

35%

Czech Republic U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Czech Republic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff