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Czech Republic U19 vs Finland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Czech Republic U19
Czech Republic U19
CANC
11:00
Finland U19
Finland U19
9/5/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Czech Republic U1975%
×Draw17%
Finland U197%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czech Republic U19
2.13
Finland U19
0.50

Czech Republic U19 creates 326% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Czech Republic U19
2.75
Finland U19
0.25

allows per match

Czech Republic U19
0.75
Finland U19
1.50

finishing

Czech Republic U19+0.00on par
Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czech Republic U19 ↓

Finland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Czech Republic U19 or draw
93%
Czech Republic U19 or Finland U19
83%
Draw or Finland U19
25%

Winning margin

Czech Republic U19 wins by 2+
50%
Finland U19 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Czech Republic U19 1+ goals
88%
Czech Republic U19 2+ goals
63%
Czech Republic U19 3+ goals
35%
Finland U19 1+ goals
39%
Finland U19 2+ goals
9%
Finland U19 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Czech Republic U19 (draw refunded)
91%
Finland U19 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czech Republic U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czech Republic U19 attack 2.75 + Finland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Finland U19 attack 0.25 + Czech Republic U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Czech Republic U19 scores more
75%
level
17%
Finland U19 scores more
7%

Czech Republic U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Czech Republic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Czech Republic U19 host Finland U19

September 5, 2020: Czech Republic U19 take on Finland U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Czech Republic U19 host Finland U19 at Sportpark Marsdijk.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.