Czech Republic U19 vs Croatia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de FãoMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Czech Republic U1953%
Croatia U1923%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Czech Republic U19 creates 65% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Czech Republic U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Czech Republic U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches
Croatia U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Czech Republic U19 attack 2.05 + Croatia U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.68
Croatia U19 attack 1.23 + Czech Republic U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Czech Republic U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Czech Republic U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Netherlands U19
England U19
Italy U19
France U19
Denmark U19
Turkey U19
Austria U19
Ukraine U19Croatia U19
Spain U19Czech Republic U19
Germany U19
Romania U19
Belgium U19
Serbia U19
Sweden U19
Norway U19
Portugal U19
Northern Ireland U19
Finland U19
Greece U19
Hungary U19
Kazakhstan U19
Kosovo U19
Switzerland U19
Latvia U19
Poland U19
Slovakia U19
Lithuania U19
Iceland U19
Luxembourg U19
Moldova U19
Slovenia U19
Belarus U19
Israel U19
Andorra U19
Albania U19
Republic of Ireland U19
Armenia U19
Scotland U19
Montenegro U19
North Macedonia U19
Wales U19
Bulgaria U19
Georgia U19
ABFF U19
Azerbaijan U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Estonia U19
Malta U19
Cyprus U19
Faroe Islands U19
San Marino U19
Gibraltar U19
Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Czech Republic U19 host Croatia U19 on Wednesday, 22 March 2023 at 11:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Czech Republic U19 3 – 1 Croatia U19
Czech Republic U19 beat Croatia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.
Goals: M. Matić (29'), L. Ambros (32'), M. Šín (56'), D. Šmiga (86').
The match was played at Complex Desportivo Clube de Futebol de Fão in Fão.