Czarni Sosnowiec W 6–1 Medyk Konin W

Czarni Sosnowiec W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Medyk Konin W

4/20/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 17Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W85%

×Draw10%

Medyk Konin W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni Sosnowiec WExpected goals in this matchMedyk Konin W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.28

0.73

Czarni Sosnowiec W

3.28

Medyk Konin W

0.73

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 349% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

3.47

creates per match

0.55

0.91

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

3.47

Medyk Konin W

0.55

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

0.91

Medyk Konin W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

Medyk Konin W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw

95%

Czarni Sosnowiec W or Medyk Konin W

90%

Draw or Medyk Konin W

15%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+

67%

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals

96%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals

83%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals

62%

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals

52%

Medyk Konin W 2+ goals

17%

Medyk Konin W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)

94%

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 3.28

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more

85%

level

10%

Medyk Konin W scores more

5%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff