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Czarni Sosnowiec W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
5/10/2026Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W53%
×Draw20%
Górnik Łęczna W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.33
Górnik Łęczna W
1.65

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
3.47
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.91
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw
73%
Czarni Sosnowiec W or Górnik Łęczna W
80%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
47%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
32%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
90%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
67%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
41%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
81%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
49%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
66%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.33

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
53%
level
20%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
27%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Czarni Sosnowiec W 4–1 Górnik Łęczna W

Czarni Sosnowiec W beat Górnik Łęczna W 4-1 in Ekstraliga Women on May 10, 2026.