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Czarni Sosnowiec W vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
11/2/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 10Stadion im. Jana Ciszewskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W73%
×Draw16%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.72
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.02

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
3.47
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.13

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.91
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.97

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par
Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

Akademia Piłkarska LG W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw
88%
Czarni Sosnowiec W or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
84%
Draw or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
27%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
51%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
93%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
75%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
50%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
64%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
27%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
86%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.72

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.13 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
73%
level
16%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
12%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Sosnowiec W vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W

Czarni Sosnowiec W beat Akademia Piłkarska LG W 6-0 in Ekstraliga Women on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Jana Ciszewskiego in Sosnowiec.