Czarni Połaniec 2–1 Wisła Sandomierz

Czarni Połaniec

FT

2 – 1

Wisła Sandomierz

3/11/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Czarni Połaniec55%

×Draw21%

Wisła Sandomierz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni PołaniecExpected goals in this matchWisła Sandomierz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.28

Czarni Połaniec

2.04

Wisła Sandomierz

1.28

Czarni Połaniec creates 59% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 54 away

1.74

creates per match

1.19

1.38

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.74

Wisła Sandomierz

1.19

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.38

Wisła Sandomierz

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw

76%

Czarni Połaniec or Wisła Sandomierz

79%

Draw or Wisła Sandomierz

45%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

32%

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

87%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

60%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

33%

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals

72%

Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals

37%

Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

70%

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more

55%

level

21%

Wisła Sandomierz scores more

24%

Czarni Połaniec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff