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Czarni Połaniec vs Wieczysta Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
11/5/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Czarni Połaniec38%
×Draw24%
Wieczysta Kraków38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.54
Wieczysta Kraków
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Wieczysta Kraków
1.74

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Wieczysta Kraków
1.35

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
62%
Czarni Połaniec or Wieczysta Kraków
76%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
62%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
18%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
79%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
45%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
20%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
79%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
46%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
49%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
38%
level
24%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
38%

Czarni Połaniec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Połaniec vs Wieczysta Kraków

Czarni Połaniec beat Wieczysta Kraków 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.