Czarni Połaniec 0–1 Tomasovia Tomaszów

Czarni Połaniec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tomasovia Tomaszów

4/9/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Czarni Połaniec54%

×Draw23%

Tomasovia Tomaszów24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni PołaniecExpected goals in this matchTomasovia Tomaszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.16

Czarni Połaniec

1.87

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.16

Czarni Połaniec creates 61% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

0.94

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.74

Tomasovia Tomaszów

0.94

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.38

Tomasovia Tomaszów

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Tomasovia Tomaszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw

76%

Czarni Połaniec or Tomasovia Tomaszów

77%

Draw or Tomasovia Tomaszów

46%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

31%

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

85%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

56%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

29%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals

69%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals

32%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

70%

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 0.94 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more

54%

level

23%

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more

24%

Czarni Połaniec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff