Czarni Połaniec 1–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Czarni Połaniec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Czarni Połaniec39%

×Draw24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni PołaniecExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Czarni Połaniec

1.52

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 89 away

1.74

creates per match

1.53

1.38

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.74

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec

1.38

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw

64%

Czarni Połaniec or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

76%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

61%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+

19%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals

78%

Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals

45%

Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals

20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

77%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

43%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)

52%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more

39%

level

24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

36%

Czarni Połaniec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff