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Czarni Połaniec vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
5/6/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Czarni Połaniec62%
×Draw18%
Lublinianka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
2.65
Lublinianka
1.47

Czarni Połaniec creates 80% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 16 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
80%
Czarni Połaniec or Lublinianka
82%
Draw or Lublinianka
38%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
41%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
93%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
74%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
48%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
77%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
43%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
76%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.65

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
62%
level
18%
Lublinianka scores more
20%

Czarni Połaniec at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Połaniec vs Lublinianka

Czarni Połaniec beat Lublinianka 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.