Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Czarni Połaniec vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
11/9/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Czarni Połaniec52%
×Draw23%
Lewart25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.81
Lewart
1.17

Czarni Połaniec creates 55% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 37 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
75%
Czarni Połaniec or Lewart
77%
Draw or Lewart
48%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
29%
Lewart wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
84%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
54%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
27%
Lewart 1+ goals
69%
Lewart 2+ goals
33%
Lewart 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
68%
Lewart (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lewart attack 0.95 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
52%
level
23%
Lewart scores more
25%

Czarni Połaniec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Połaniec vs Lewart

Czarni Połaniec beat Lewart 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.