Cyprus W 3–2 Luxembourg W: Result & Stats

Cyprus W

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Luxembourg W

E. Aristodimou 80'

S. V. Mcbeth 62'

E. Michail 53'

R. Kirps 83'

A. Thompson 58'

11/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cyprus W45%

×Draw20%

Luxembourg W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cyprus WExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

2.01

Cyprus W

2.29

Luxembourg W

2.01

Cyprus W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.20

creates per match

2.63

1.40

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Cyprus W

2.20

Luxembourg W

2.63

allows per match

Cyprus W

1.40

Luxembourg W

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus W+0.00on par

Luxembourg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus W ↓

Luxembourg W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Cyprus W or draw

65%

Cyprus W or Luxembourg W

80%

Draw or Luxembourg W

55%

Winning margin

Cyprus W wins by 2+

26%

Luxembourg W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cyprus W 1+ goals

90%

Cyprus W 2+ goals

66%

Cyprus W 3+ goals

40%

Luxembourg W 1+ goals

87%

Luxembourg W 2+ goals

59%

Luxembourg W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Cyprus W (draw refunded)

56%

Luxembourg W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cyprus W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Luxembourg W away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus W attack 2.20 + Luxembourg W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.29

Luxembourg W attack 2.63 + Cyprus W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cyprus W scores more

45%

level

20%

Luxembourg W scores more

35%

Cyprus W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cyprus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

E. Michail

58'

A. Thompson

62'

S. V. Mcbeth

63'

C. Kyriakidi← E. Siakalli

63'

C. Michael← S. Papadopoulou

63'

M. Zamani← S. V. Mcbeth

72'

C. Charalambous← A. Violari

73'

L. Chrysostomou← M. Panagiotou

80'

E. Aristodimou

83'

S. Aspraki← E. Michail

83'

S. Polydorou← F. Savva

83'

R. Kirps

Cyprus

Luxembourg

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mcbeth

▼

Violari

⚽

▼

Michail

Manager: R. Demetriades

63'▲C. Kyriakidi←▼E. Siakalli

63'▲C. Michael←▼S. Papadopoulou

63'▲M. Zamani←▼S. V. Mcbeth

72'▲C. Charalambous←▼A. Violari

73'▲L. Chrysostomou←▼M. Panagiotou

83'▲S. Aspraki←▼E. Michail

83'▲S. Polydorou←▼F. Savva

Cyprus W substitutes

4Cusick11Chrysostomou23Kyriakidi3Michael15Aspraki2Polydorou22Kouzali21ZamaniCharalambous

Manager: D. Santos

Luxembourg W substitutes

JungOberweisFreymannKremerKocanSantosLeiteKirpsTeixeiraFiorucciDietrichBesch

Match Recap: Cyprus W vs Luxembourg W

Cyprus W beat Luxembourg W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on November 28, 2025.

Goals: E. Michail (53'), A. Thompson (58'), S. V. Mcbeth (62'), E. Aristodimou (80'), R. Kirps (83').

Cyprus W vs Luxembourg W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cyprus W vs Luxembourg W