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Cyprus W vs Liechtenstein W — Friendlies Women 2026

Cyprus W
Cyprus W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Liechtenstein W
Liechtenstein W
A. Violari 85'
K. Freda 45+2'
S. Vogt 45'
10/9/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Athlítiko Kentro Zenon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cyprus W62%
×Draw19%
Liechtenstein W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus W
2.32
Liechtenstein W
1.20

Cyprus W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cyprus W
2.20
Liechtenstein W
1.00

allows per match

Cyprus W
1.40
Liechtenstein W
2.44

finishing

Cyprus W+0.00on par
Liechtenstein W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus W ↓

Liechtenstein W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cyprus W or draw
81%
Cyprus W or Liechtenstein W
81%
Draw or Liechtenstein W
38%

Winning margin

Cyprus W wins by 2+
40%
Liechtenstein W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cyprus W 1+ goals
90%
Cyprus W 2+ goals
67%
Cyprus W 3+ goals
40%
Liechtenstein W 1+ goals
70%
Liechtenstein W 2+ goals
34%
Liechtenstein W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cyprus W (draw refunded)
77%
Liechtenstein W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Liechtenstein W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus W attack 2.20 + Liechtenstein W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.32

Liechtenstein W attack 1.00 + Cyprus W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cyprus W scores more
62%
level
19%
Liechtenstein W scores more
19%

Cyprus W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cyprus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. Vogt
45+2'
K. Freda
46'
N. Gassner← N. Gassner
63'
E. Michail← E. Michail
63'
L. Chrysostomou← L. Chrysostomou
63'
M. Georgiou← M. Georgiou
73'
M. Matthaiou← M. Matthaiou
73'
M. Chaliou← M. Chaliou
73'
E. Giannou← E. Giannou
73'
E. Siakalli← E. Siakalli
76'
C. Mussner← C. Mussner
76'
E. Lohner
83'
C. Lattorff← C. Lattorff
83'
M. Hammermann← M. Hammermann
85'
A. Violari
87'
I. Wiebach← I. Wiebach

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Cyprus W 2–1 Liechtenstein W

Cyprus W beat Liechtenstein W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on October 9, 2022.

Goals: S. Vogt (45'), K. Freda (45+2'), A. Violari (85').

The match was played at Athlítiko Kentro Zenon in Larnaca.