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USFAS Bamako vs Yeelen Olympique — Première Division 2019

USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
FT
1 – 2
Yeelen Olympique
Yeelen Olympique
12/14/2019Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

USFAS Bamako40%
×Draw29%
Yeelen Olympique31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USFAS Bamako
1.22
Yeelen Olympique
1.03

USFAS Bamako creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 53 away

creates per match

USFAS Bamako
1.11
Yeelen Olympique
1.17

allows per match

USFAS Bamako
0.89
Yeelen Olympique
1.32

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par
Yeelen Olympique+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Yeelen Olympique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw
69%
USFAS Bamako or Yeelen Olympique
71%
Draw or Yeelen Olympique
60%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
18%
Yeelen Olympique wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
70%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
34%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
12%
Yeelen Olympique 1+ goals
64%
Yeelen Olympique 2+ goals
28%
Yeelen Olympique 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
57%
Yeelen Olympique (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

Yeelen Olympique away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.11 + Yeelen Olympique defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Yeelen Olympique attack 1.17 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more
40%
level
29%
Yeelen Olympique scores more
31%

USFAS Bamako at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: USFAS Bamako vs Yeelen Olympique

Yeelen Olympique beat USFAS Bamako 2-1 in Première Division on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.