Cyprus 2–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

Cyprus

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bosnia & Herzegovina

I. Pittas 90' (pen)

K. Laifis 45'

N. Michail 36' (OG)

N. Katic 10'

10/9/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 7AEK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cyprus28%

×Draw25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CyprusExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.55

Cyprus

1.13

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.55

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cyprus

1.00

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.50

allows per match

Cyprus

1.60

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw

53%

Cyprus or Bosnia & Herzegovina

75%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

72%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+

11%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals

68%

Cyprus 2+ goals

31%

Cyprus 3+ goals

11%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

79%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

46%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)

37%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 1.00 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.50 + Cyprus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cyprus scores more

28%

level

25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

47%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Laifis

Cyprus · D

8.3

Match Events

9'

Anderson Correia

10'

N. Katic

29'

Nihad Mujakić

36'

N. MichailOwn goal

45'

Kerim Alajbegović

45'

K. Laifis

46'

D. Burnic← N. Mujakic

51'

Antreas Shikkis

63'

Ivan Šunjić

65'

K. Pileas← Anderson Correia

65'

E. Bajraktarevic← K. Alajbegovic

65'

I. Basic← A. Gigovic

72'

A. Kakoullis← C. Charalampous

80'

E. Andreou← M. Tzionis

80'

N. Koutsakos← L. Loizou

80'

C. Kyriakou← K. Artymatas

81'

Benjamin Tahirović

83'

N. Omerovic← A. Memic

90+4'

Andronikos KakoullisPenalty confirmed

90'

D. Besirovic← B. Tahirovic

90'

I. PittasPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CyprusBosnia

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots14

2.83Expected Goals (xG)1.64

3Corners5

16Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target6

7Off Target5

4Blocked3

11Inside Box12

3Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

516Total Passes287

442Accurate Passes201

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

League #32: Cyprus 2–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Cyprus and Bosnia & Herzegovina drew 2-2 in League #32 on October 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Katic (10'), N. Michail (36' o.g.), K. Laifis (45'), I. Pittas (90' pen).

Cyprus controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at AEK Arena in Larnaca.

Cyprus vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — League #32 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #32: Cyprus 2–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina