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Cyprus vs Austria — League #32 2026

Cyprus
Cyprus
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Austria
Austria
M. Arnautovic 55', 18' (pen)
11/15/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 9Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cyprus36%
×Draw25%
Austria39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus
1.38
Austria
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cyprus
1.00
Austria
1.25

allows per match

Cyprus
1.60
Austria
1.75

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw
61%
Cyprus or Austria
75%
Draw or Austria
64%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+
17%
Austria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals
75%
Cyprus 2+ goals
40%
Cyprus 3+ goals
16%
Austria 1+ goals
76%
Austria 2+ goals
42%
Austria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)
48%
Austria (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Austria away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 1.00 + Austria defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Austria attack 1.25 + Cyprus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cyprus scores more
36%
level
25%
Austria scores more
39%

Austria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. ArnautovicAustriaAustria · F
8.3

Match Events

18'
M. ArnautovicPenalty
45'
Grigoris Kastanos
55'
M. Arnautovic↳ K. Danso
61'
M. Gregoritsch← M. Arnautovic
61'
P. Wimmer← X. Schlager
65'
A. Kakoullis← L. Loizou
65'
I. Kosti← Anderson Correia
65'
S. Andreou← G. Kastanos
70'
Antreas Shikkis
82'
N. Koutsakos← C. Charalampous
85'
M. Friedl← C. Baumgartner
88'
A. Foti← M. Tzionis
90'
N. Wurmbrand← R. Schmid
90'
M. Grull← M. Sabitzer

Possession

37%Cyprus

Shots

4Cyprus

Pass accuracy

45%Cyprus

Statistics

CyprusAustria
Overview
37%Possession63%
4Total Shots12
0.39Expected Goals (xG)2.18
6Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
4Total Shots12
0On Target6
3Off Target5
1Blocked1
3Inside Box10
1Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
327Total Passes584
233Accurate Passes505
71%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

League #32: Cyprus 0–2 Austria

Austria beat Cyprus 2-0 in League #32 on November 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Arnautovic (18' pen, 55').

Austria controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Limassol.