Cyprus U19 2–1 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Cyprus U19

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania U19

G. Psilogenis 76'

C. Kattirtzis 11'

G. Emerhi 90'

9/8/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cyprus U1933%

×Draw24%

Lithuania U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cyprus U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.67

Cyprus U19

1.42

Lithuania U19

1.67

Lithuania U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.83

creates per match

1.00

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cyprus U19

0.83

Lithuania U19

1.00

allows per match

Cyprus U19

2.33

Lithuania U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cyprus U19 or draw

57%

Cyprus U19 or Lithuania U19

76%

Draw or Lithuania U19

67%

Winning margin

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

15%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

76%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

41%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

17%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

81%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

50%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cyprus U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus U19 attack 0.83 + Lithuania U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lithuania U19 attack 1.00 + Cyprus U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cyprus U19 scores more

33%

level

24%

Lithuania U19 scores more

43%

Lithuania U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

C. Kattirtzis

76'

G. Psilogenis

90'

G. Emerhi

Cyprus

Lithuania

Manager: V. Koulountis

Manager: R. Breu