Cyprus U19 1–3 Hungary U19: Result & Stats

Cyprus U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hungary U19

D. Juliou 45+1'

Z. Varga 65'

M. Vidnyánszky 50'

H. Németh 21'

11/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cyprus U1913%

×Draw21%

Hungary U1966%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cyprus U19Expected goals in this matchHungary U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.87

Cyprus U19

0.67

Hungary U19

1.87

Hungary U19 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.33

creates per match

1.07

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cyprus U19

0.33

Hungary U19

1.07

allows per match

Cyprus U19

2.67

Hungary U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus U19 ↓

Hungary U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–115%

0–214%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cyprus U19 or draw

34%

Cyprus U19 or Hungary U19

79%

Draw or Hungary U19

87%

Winning margin

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

3%

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

49%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

15%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

3%

Hungary U19 1+ goals

85%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

56%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus U19 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Hungary U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus U19 attack 0.33 + Hungary U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Hungary U19 attack 1.07 + Cyprus U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cyprus U19 scores more

13%

level

21%

Hungary U19 scores more

66%

Hungary U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

30'

45+1'

50'

56'

D. Vasiliou← K. Poursaitidis

63'

S. Sofokleous← P. Markou

64'

G. Sokratous← A. Giannakou

64'

P. Kattirtzis← C. Kattirtzis

65'

74'

74'

77'

82'

P. Angeli← K. Panagiotou

84'

S. Sofokleous

86'

A. Szamosi← H. Németh

86'

K. Mondovics← M. Vidnyánszky

90+2'

L. Bősze← S. Szabó

Cyprus

Hungary

1

Yaakobish

19

▼

3

15

23

6

16

⚽

▼

Németh

8

Kern

20

⚽

▼

Vidnyánsz

7

⚽

▼

Varga

10

▼

12

3

2

4

▼

Giannakou

15

Andreou

8

Andreou

6

▼

Markou

9

⚽

Juliou

11

▼

Poursaiti

17

▼

Kattirtzi

18

▼

Panagioto

Manager: V. Koulountis

56'▲D. Vasiliou←▼K. Poursaitidis

63'▲S. Sofokleous←▼P. Markou

64'▲G. Sokratous←▼A. Giannakou

64'▲P. Kattirtzis←▼C. Kattirtzis

82'▲P. Angeli←▼K. Panagiotou

Cyprus U19 substitutes

20Vasiliou7Sofokleous19Sokratous10Kattirtzis14Angeli1Pishias5Kyriakou13Lytras16Parlatas

Manager: G. Jeremiás

74'▲B. Simon←▼P. Kovács

74'▲C. Molnár←▼Z. Varga

86'▲A. Szamosi←▼H. Németh

86'▲K. Mondovics←▼M. Vidnyánszky

90+2'▲L. Bősze←▼S. Szabó

Hungary U19 substitutes

9Simon11Molnár4Szamosi21Mondovics13Bősze17Girsik2Bacsa12Lehoczki5Stumpf

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Cyprus U19 1–3 Hungary U19

Hungary U19 beat Cyprus U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2024.

Goals: H. Németh (21'), D. Juliou (45+1'), M. Vidnyánszky (50'), Z. Varga (65').

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.

Cyprus U19 vs Hungary U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Cyprus U19 1–3 Hungary U19