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Cyprus U19 vs Georgia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Cyprus U19
Cyprus U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Georgia U19
Georgia U19
11/15/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cyprus U1927%
×Draw23%
Georgia U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus U19
1.31
Georgia U19
1.87

Georgia U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cyprus U19
0.33
Georgia U19
1.07

allows per match

Cyprus U19
2.67
Georgia U19
2.29

finishing

Cyprus U19+0.00on par
Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cyprus U19 or draw
50%
Cyprus U19 or Georgia U19
77%
Draw or Georgia U19
73%

Winning margin

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+
11%
Georgia U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cyprus U19 1+ goals
73%
Cyprus U19 2+ goals
38%
Cyprus U19 3+ goals
14%
Georgia U19 1+ goals
85%
Georgia U19 2+ goals
56%
Georgia U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Georgia U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus U19 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus U19 attack 0.33 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Cyprus U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cyprus U19 scores more
27%
level
23%
Georgia U19 scores more
50%

Georgia U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Georgia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cyprus U19 0 – 2 Georgia U19

Georgia U19 beat Cyprus U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.