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Cyprus U19 vs England U18 — Friendlies 2026

Cyprus U19
Cyprus U19
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
England U18
England U18
C. Kittou 88'
R. McAidoo 90'
C. Ezenwata 90'
A. Mills 80'
D. Benamar 75'
A. Gomes Rodriguez 30'
J. Monga 25'
5/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalEthnikos Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cyprus U1913%
×Draw18%
England U1869%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus U19
0.92
England U18
2.33

England U18 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cyprus U19
0.83
England U18
2.33

allows per match

Cyprus U19
2.33
England U18
1.00

finishing

Cyprus U19+0.00on par
England U18+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus U19 ↓

England U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cyprus U19 or draw
31%
Cyprus U19 or England U18
82%
Draw or England U18
87%

Winning margin

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+
4%
England U18 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Cyprus U19 1+ goals
60%
Cyprus U19 2+ goals
23%
Cyprus U19 3+ goals
7%
England U18 1+ goals
90%
England U18 2+ goals
67%
England U18 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)
16%
England U18 (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

England U18 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus U19 attack 0.83 + England U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

England U18 attack 2.33 + Cyprus U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cyprus U19 scores more
13%
level
18%
England U18 scores more
69%

England U18 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "England U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Monga
30'
A. Gomes Rodriguez
75'
D. Benamar
80'
A. Mills
88'
C. Kittou
90'
R. McAidoo
90'
C. Ezenwata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cyprus U19 vs England U18

England U18 beat Cyprus U19 6-1 in Friendlies on May 31, 2026.

Goals: J. Monga (25'), A. Gomes Rodriguez (30'), D. Benamar (75'), A. Mills (80'), C. Kittou (88'), R. McAidoo (90'), C. Ezenwata (90').

The match was played at Ethnikos Achnas in Achna.