Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cyprus U17 vs Slovakia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Cyprus U17
Cyprus U17
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Slovakia U17
Slovakia U17
10/29/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cyprus U1736%
×Draw27%
Slovakia U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus U17
1.27
Slovakia U17
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cyprus U17
0.90
Slovakia U17
1.00

allows per match

Cyprus U17
1.60
Slovakia U17
1.64

finishing

Cyprus U17+0.00on par
Slovakia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus U17 ↓

Slovakia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cyprus U17 or draw
63%
Cyprus U17 or Slovakia U17
73%
Draw or Slovakia U17
64%

Winning margin

Cyprus U17 wins by 2+
16%
Slovakia U17 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cyprus U17 1+ goals
72%
Cyprus U17 2+ goals
36%
Cyprus U17 3+ goals
14%
Slovakia U17 1+ goals
73%
Slovakia U17 2+ goals
37%
Slovakia U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cyprus U17 (draw refunded)
49%
Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus U17 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Slovakia U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus U17 attack 0.90 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Slovakia U17 attack 1.00 + Cyprus U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cyprus U17 scores more
36%
level
27%
Slovakia U17 scores more
37%

Slovakia U17 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Slovakia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cyprus U17 vs Slovakia U17

Slovakia U17 beat Cyprus U17 3-2 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.