Customs United 1–2 Sisaket: Result & Stats

Customs United

FT

1 – 2

Sisaket

3/3/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 4Lat Krabang 54 Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Customs United35%

×Draw27%

Sisaket38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Customs UnitedExpected goals in this matchSisaket

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Customs United

1.21

Sisaket

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 48 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Customs United

1.18

Sisaket

1.00

allows per match

Customs United

1.53

Sisaket

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par

Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Sisaket →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Customs United or draw

62%

Customs United or Sisaket

73%

Draw or Sisaket

65%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+

15%

Sisaket wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals

70%

Customs United 2+ goals

34%

Customs United 3+ goals

12%

Sisaket 1+ goals

72%

Sisaket 2+ goals

36%

Sisaket 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)

48%

Sisaket (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 1.18 + Sisaket defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sisaket attack 1.00 + Customs United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Customs United scores more

35%

level

27%

Sisaket scores more

38%

Sisaket at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff