Customs United 1–1 Samut Sakhon FC: Result & Stats

Customs United

FT

1 – 1

Samut Sakhon FC

3/16/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 6Lat Krabang 54 Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Customs United53%

×Draw22%

Samut Sakhon FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Customs UnitedExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.23

Customs United

1.92

Samut Sakhon FC

1.23

Customs United creates 56% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 48 away

1.18

creates per match

0.92

1.53

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Customs United

1.18

Samut Sakhon FC

0.92

allows per match

Customs United

1.53

Samut Sakhon FC

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Customs United or draw

76%

Customs United or Samut Sakhon FC

78%

Draw or Samut Sakhon FC

47%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+

31%

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals

85%

Customs United 2+ goals

57%

Customs United 3+ goals

30%

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

71%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

35%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)

69%

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 1.18 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Customs United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Customs United scores more

53%

level

22%

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

24%

Customs United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Customs United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff