Customs United 0–0 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Customs United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Krabi FC

10/23/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 10Lat Krabang 54 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Customs United48%

×Draw24%

Krabi FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Customs UnitedExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Customs United

1.69

Krabi FC

1.23

Customs United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 48 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

1.53

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Customs United

1.18

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

Customs United

1.53

Krabi FC

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Customs United or draw

72%

Customs United or Krabi FC

76%

Draw or Krabi FC

52%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+

26%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals

82%

Customs United 2+ goals

50%

Customs United 3+ goals

24%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

71%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

35%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)

63%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 1.18 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.69

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Customs United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Customs United scores more

48%

level

24%

Krabi FC scores more

28%

Customs United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Customs United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff