Customs United 1–5 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Customs United

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 0

Buriram United

12/21/2025

FA Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Customs United33%

×Draw20%

Buriram United46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Customs UnitedExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.25

Customs United

1.90

Buriram United

2.25

Buriram United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

2.43

creates per match

2.79

1.71

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Customs United

2.43

Buriram United

2.79

allows per match

Customs United

1.71

Buriram United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Buriram United →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Customs United or draw

54%

Customs United or Buriram United

80%

Draw or Buriram United

67%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+

17%

Buriram United wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals

85%

Customs United 2+ goals

56%

Customs United 3+ goals

29%

Buriram United 1+ goals

89%

Buriram United 2+ goals

65%

Buriram United 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)

42%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 2.43 + Buriram United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Buriram United attack 2.79 + Customs United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Customs United scores more

33%

level

20%

Buriram United scores more

46%

Buriram United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff