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Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Cusco
Cusco
Preview
23:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
8/1/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Big match
54%
Cusco
model favours
54%24%22%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco54%
×Draw24%
UTC Cajamarca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.67
UTC Cajamarca
0.97

Cusco creates 72% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 144 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.72
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Cusco
1.02
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
78%
Cusco or UTC Cajamarca
76%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
46%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
29%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
81%
Cusco 2+ goals
50%
Cusco 3+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
62%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
25%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
71%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cusco scores more
54%
level
24%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
22%

Cusco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 27% of Cusco’s matches
  • 39% of Cusco’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • 22% of Cusco’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cusco
Balanced
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
56%Possession47%
84%Pass accuracy76%
13.3Shots11.8
1.62xGBiggest gap0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CuscoUTC Cajamarca

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Cusco
3
Draws
4
UTC Cajamarca
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 78%
0–12–11–11–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cusco
LLDWL
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca — Match Preview

Cusco face UTC Cajamarca on August 1, 2026 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cusco host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.