Cusco 2–0 Union Huaral: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Huaral

9/4/2022

Segunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cusco63%

×Draw20%

Union Huaral17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.00

Cusco

2.11

Union Huaral

1.00

Cusco creates 111% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 66 away

2.58

creates per match

1.32

0.67

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Cusco

2.58

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Cusco

0.67

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

83%

Cusco or Union Huaral

80%

Draw or Union Huaral

37%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

39%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

88%

Cusco 2+ goals

62%

Cusco 3+ goals

35%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

63%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

26%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

79%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 2.58 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.11

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Cusco defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cusco scores more

63%

level

20%

Union Huaral scores more

17%

Cusco at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff