Cusco 3–0 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sport Huancayo

7/13/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 19Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco51%

×Draw25%

Sport Huancayo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Cusco

1.61

Sport Huancayo

1.04

Cusco creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 147 away

1.72

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cusco

1.72

Sport Huancayo

1.05

allows per match

Cusco

1.02

Sport Huancayo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

75%

Cusco or Sport Huancayo

75%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

49%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

27%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

80%

Cusco 2+ goals

48%

Cusco 3+ goals

22%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

65%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

28%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cusco scores more

51%

level

25%

Sport Huancayo scores more

25%

Cusco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff