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Cusco vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

Cusco
Cusco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
11/7/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco56%
×Draw24%
Sport Boys20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.75
Sport Boys
0.94

Cusco creates 86% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 145 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.72
Sport Boys
0.86

allows per match

Cusco
1.02
Sport Boys
1.77

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
80%
Cusco or Sport Boys
76%
Draw or Sport Boys
44%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
32%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
83%
Cusco 2+ goals
52%
Cusco 3+ goals
25%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
61%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
24%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
74%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cusco scores more
56%
level
24%
Sport Boys scores more
20%

Cusco at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Cusco 3–0 Sport Boys

Cusco beat Sport Boys 3-0 in Primera División on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.