Cusco 1–0 Deportivo Municipal: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Municipal

F. Cavagna 61' (OG)

5/5/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Cusco51%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Municipal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.14

Cusco

1.73

Deportivo Municipal

1.14

Cusco creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 102 away

1.72

creates per match

1.25

1.02

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cusco

1.72

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Cusco

1.02

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

75%

Cusco or Deportivo Municipal

76%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

49%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

28%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

82%

Cusco 2+ goals

52%

Cusco 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cusco scores more

51%

level

24%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

25%

Cusco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pérez

Deportivo Municipal · M

8.0

Match Events

34'

Gerson Barreto

43'

Francesco Cavagna

46'

A. Yovera← A. Gordillo

61'

F. CavagnaOwn goal

62'

Felipe Rodríguez

66'

M. Aucca← G. Barreto

71'

J. Céspedes← K. Peña

71'

P. Erustes← F. Cavagna

71'

E. Ciucci← L. Solís

76'

L. Ramos← D. Soto

76'

J. Toledo← J. Núñez

81'

Abdiel Ayarza

82'

J. Morales← F. Rodríguez

87'

T. Cantoro← A. Ayarza

88'

H. Benincasa← M. da Luz

89'

Freddy Yovera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoDeportivo

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots15

3Corners4

18Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots15

0On Target5

6Off Target6

3Blocked4

1Inside Box10

8Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

322Total Passes380

222Accurate Passes285

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0