Cusco 2–3 Alianza Universidad: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Universidad

G. Rizzo 77'

E. Aubert 24'

J. Conde 80'

D. Manicero 72' (pen)

J. Ávila 14'

8/1/2021

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cusco60%

×Draw24%

Alianza Universidad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.72

Cusco

1.66

Alianza Universidad

0.72

Cusco creates 131% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

0.72

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Cusco

1.53

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Cusco

0.72

Alianza Universidad

1.78

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Cusco+0.58scores more

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

84%

Cusco or Alianza Universidad

76%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

40%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

33%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

81%

Cusco 2+ goals

49%

Cusco 3+ goals

23%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

51%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

16%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

79%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 9 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.53 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Cusco defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cusco scores more

60%

level

24%

Alianza Universidad scores more

16%

Cusco at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

E. Aubert

Cusco · F

7.2

Match Events

14'

22'

24'

36'

58'

59'

60'

64'

J. Velásquez← D. Espinoza

64'

A. Ramúa← V. Cedrón

68'

D. Ismodes← R. Espinoza

68'

D. Manicero← J. Landauri

70'

Gonzalo Rizzo

71'

M. Montes← J. Rivera

72'

D. ManiceroPenalty

77'

G. Rizzo

80'

J. Conde

86'

A. Carrillo← J. Céspedes

Shots

Statistics

CuscoAlianza

Overview

2Total Shots3

6Corners4

2Fouls3

Shots

2Total Shots3

2On Target3

Discipline

2Fouls3

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0