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Cusco vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Cusco
Cusco
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
4/16/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cusco72%
×Draw17%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
2.37
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.81

Cusco creates 193% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cusco
2.58
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Cusco
0.67
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
89%
Cusco or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
83%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
28%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
49%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
91%
Cusco 2+ goals
68%
Cusco 3+ goals
42%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
56%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
19%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
87%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 2.58 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.37

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Cusco defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cusco scores more
72%
level
17%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
11%

Cusco at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cusco 2–2 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Cusco and Alfonso Ugarte Puno drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.