Curzon Ashton 1–4 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Curzon Ashton

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Macclesfield

T. Pemberton 11' (OG)

H. Campbell 75'

Arnasalam 73'

T. Peers 53', 22'

7/18/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Curzon Ashton13%

×Draw16%

Macclesfield71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curzon AshtonExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.75

Curzon Ashton

1.13

Macclesfield

2.75

Macclesfield creates 143% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Curzon Ashton

1.00

Macclesfield

2.75

allows per match

Curzon Ashton

2.75

Macclesfield

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curzon Ashton+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curzon Ashton ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Curzon Ashton or draw

29%

Curzon Ashton or Macclesfield

84%

Draw or Macclesfield

87%

Winning margin

Curzon Ashton wins by 2+

5%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Curzon Ashton 1+ goals

68%

Curzon Ashton 2+ goals

31%

Curzon Ashton 3+ goals

11%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

93%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

75%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Curzon Ashton (draw refunded)

16%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curzon Ashton at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curzon Ashton attack 1.00 + Macclesfield defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Macclesfield attack 2.75 + Curzon Ashton defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Curzon Ashton scores more

13%

level

16%

Macclesfield scores more

71%

Macclesfield at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. PembertonOwn goal

22'

T. Peers

53'

T. Peers

73'

Arnasalam

75'

H. Campbell

77'

Sinclair

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff