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Curridabat FC vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
1 – 1
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
3/6/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC54%
×Draw24%
Turrialba Fc23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.75
Turrialba Fc
1.05

Curridabat FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 100 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Turrialba Fc
0.87

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Turrialba Fc
2.39

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
77%
Curridabat FC or Turrialba Fc
76%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
46%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
30%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
83%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
52%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
25%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
65%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
28%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
70%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.39 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Turrialba Fc attack 0.87 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Turrialba Fc scores more
23%

Curridabat FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Curridabat FC 1–1 Turrialba Fc

Curridabat FC and Turrialba Fc drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).