Curico Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion — Copa Chile 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Curico Unido29%
Universidad de Concepcion44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad de Concepcion creates 31% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Curico Unido ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Curico Unido at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches
Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Curico Unido attack 1.00 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06
Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.94 + Curico Unido defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Universidad de Concepcion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Deportes Limache
Deportes Santa Cruz
Antofagasta
U. Catolica
Universidad de Chile
Deportes Iquique
Coquimbo Unido
D. Puerto MonttCurico Unido
A. Italiano
Rangers de Talca
Union San Felipe
Deportes Temuco
Union La Calera
Palestino
Everton de Vina
Cobreloa
Union Espanola
Concepción
Recoleta
Deportes Copiapo
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
Nublense
Huachipato
Santiago Wanderers
O'Higgins
San LuisUniversidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
San Marcos de Arica
MagallanesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Curico Unido host Universidad de Concepcion on Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 21:00. The match is part of the Copa Chile 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Curico Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion beat Curico Unido 1-0 in Copa Chile on February 8, 2025.
Goals: D. Sabando (90+5').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Joaquín Muñoz García in Santa Cruz.