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Curaçao vs Canada — League #22 2026

Curaçao
Curaçao
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Canada
Canada
J. Antonisse 90'
N. Saliba 9'
6/21/2025League #22League #22 · Group Stage - 2Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Curaçao44%
×Draw30%
Canada26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curaçao
1.17
Canada
0.83

Curaçao creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Curaçao
0.33
Canada
1.00

allows per match

Curaçao
0.67
Canada
2.00

finishing

Curaçao+0.00on par
Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curaçao ↓

Canada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Curaçao or draw
74%
Curaçao or Canada
70%
Draw or Canada
56%

Winning margin

Curaçao wins by 2+
19%
Canada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Curaçao 1+ goals
69%
Curaçao 2+ goals
33%
Curaçao 3+ goals
11%
Canada 1+ goals
56%
Canada 2+ goals
20%
Canada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Curaçao (draw refunded)
63%
Canada (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curaçao at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Canada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curaçao attack 0.33 + Canada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Canada attack 1.00 + Curaçao defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Curaçao scores more
44%
level
30%
Canada scores more
26%

Curaçao at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Curaçao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. BacunaCuraçaoCuraçao · M
7.5

Match Events

8'
Leandro Bacuna
9'
N. Saliba
50'
Kamal Miller
56'
A. Ahmed← J. Nelson
57'
Sherel Floranus
59'
J. Antonisse← J. Margaritha
60'
G. Roemeratoe← L. Bacuna
69'
Jürgen LocadiaGoal cancelled
70'
T. Buchanan← A. Ahmed
70'
M. Choinière← I. Koné
70'
A. Johnston← N. Sigur
71'
Juninho Bacuna
75'
J. Zimmerman← K. Gorré
87'
G. Kastaneer← J. Gaari
89'
C. Larin← J. Shaffelburg
90'
J. Antonisse↳ J. Zimmerman

Possession

48%Curaçao

Shots

6Curaçao

Pass accuracy

49%Curaçao

Statistics

CuraçaoCanada
Overview
48%Possession52%
6Total Shots6
2Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots6
2On Target3
3Off Target1
1Blocked2
5Inside Box4
1Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
298Total Passes317
219Accurate Passes239
73%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Curaçao vs Canada

Curaçao and Canada drew 1-1 in League #22 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: N. Saliba (9'), J. Antonisse (90').

Canada controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas.