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Cuniburo vs Macara — Copa Ecuador 2022

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Macara
Macara
7/28/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cuniburo57%
×Draw23%
Macara20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.83
Macara
1.00

Cuniburo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
2.00
Macara
0.67

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.33
Macara
1.67

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
80%
Cuniburo or Macara
77%
Draw or Macara
43%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
32%
Macara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
84%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
54%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
28%
Macara 1+ goals
63%
Macara 2+ goals
26%
Macara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
74%
Macara (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Macara away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 2.00 + Macara defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Macara attack 0.67 + Cuniburo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cuniburo scores more
57%
level
23%
Macara scores more
20%

Cuniburo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: Cuniburo 3–1 Macara

Cuniburo beat Macara 3-1 in Copa Ecuador on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.