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Cuniburo vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
6/15/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 16Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuniburo35%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.19
LDU de Quito
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.22
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.11
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
63%
Cuniburo or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
65%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
15%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
70%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
33%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
12%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
71%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
35%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
48%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.22 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cuniburo scores more
35%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
37%

LDU de Quito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuniburo vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Cuniburo 2-1 in Liga Pro on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in Quito.