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Cuniburo vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
8/1/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cuniburo57%
×Draw25%
Gualaceo SC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.64
Gualaceo SC
0.81

Cuniburo creates 102% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.93
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

Cuniburo
0.80
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
82%
Cuniburo or Gualaceo SC
75%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
43%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
31%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
81%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
49%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
23%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
56%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
19%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
76%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.93 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Cuniburo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cuniburo scores more
57%
level
25%
Gualaceo SC scores more
18%

Cuniburo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuniburo vs Gualaceo SC

Cuniburo beat Gualaceo SC 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.