Cuniburo 2–1 Emelec: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Cuniburo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Emelec

3/9/2025

Liga Pro · Round 4Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuniburo39%

×Draw27%

Emelec33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuniburoExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Cuniburo

1.27

Emelec

1.15

Cuniburo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 131 away

1.22

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cuniburo

1.22

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Cuniburo

1.11

Emelec

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw

67%

Cuniburo or Emelec

73%

Draw or Emelec

61%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+

17%

Emelec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals

72%

Cuniburo 2+ goals

36%

Cuniburo 3+ goals

14%

Emelec 1+ goals

68%

Emelec 2+ goals

32%

Emelec 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)

54%

Emelec (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.22 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Emelec attack 1.18 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cuniburo scores more

39%

level

27%

Emelec scores more

33%

Cuniburo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff