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Cuniburo vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
J. Segovia 59'
P. Vargas 23'
A. Angulo 62'
7/15/2026Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cuniburo70%
×Draw18%
El Nacional11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
2.20
El Nacional
0.75

Cuniburo creates 193% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
2.21
El Nacional
0.64

allows per match

Cuniburo
0.86
El Nacional
2.18

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
89%
Cuniburo or El Nacional
82%
Draw or El Nacional
30%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
46%
El Nacional wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
89%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
64%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
37%
El Nacional 1+ goals
53%
El Nacional 2+ goals
17%
El Nacional 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
86%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 2.21 + El Nacional defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

El Nacional attack 0.64 + Cuniburo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cuniburo scores more
70%
level
18%
El Nacional scores more
11%

Cuniburo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
P. VargasMissed penalty
23'
P. Vargas
59'
J. Segovia
62'
A. Angulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Cuniburo 2–1 El Nacional

Cuniburo beat El Nacional 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 15, 2026.

Goals: P. Vargas (23'), J. Segovia (59'), A. Angulo (62').