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Cuniburo vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
America de Quito
America de Quito
K. Ushiña 90+5'
J. Folleco 45'
K. Ushiña 39' (OG)
J. Ruiz 35'
3/22/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cuniburo53%
×Draw25%
America de Quito22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.60
America de Quito
0.93

Cuniburo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.93
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

Cuniburo
0.80
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
78%
Cuniburo or America de Quito
75%
Draw or America de Quito
47%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
28%
America de Quito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
80%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
47%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
22%
America de Quito 1+ goals
61%
America de Quito 2+ goals
24%
America de Quito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
71%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.93 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.60

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Cuniburo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cuniburo scores more
53%
level
25%
America de Quito scores more
22%

Cuniburo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Ruiz
39'
K. UshiñaOwn goal
45'
J. Folleco
90+5'
K. Ushiña

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Cuniburo 1–3 America de Quito

America de Quito beat Cuniburo 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 22, 2023.

Goals: J. Ruiz (35'), K. Ushiña (39' o.g., 90+5'), J. Folleco (45').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.