Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cumnock Juniors vs BSC Glasgow — FA Cup 2019

Cumnock Juniors
Cumnock Juniors
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
BSC Glasgow
BSC Glasgow
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundTownhead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cumnock Juniors19%
×Draw19%
BSC Glasgow62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumnock Juniors
1.29
BSC Glasgow
2.42

BSC Glasgow creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cumnock Juniors
1.00
BSC Glasgow
2.43

allows per match

Cumnock Juniors
2.40
BSC Glasgow
1.57

finishing

Cumnock Juniors+0.00on par
BSC Glasgow+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumnock Juniors ↓

BSC Glasgow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Cumnock Juniors or draw
38%
Cumnock Juniors or BSC Glasgow
81%
Draw or BSC Glasgow
81%

Winning margin

Cumnock Juniors wins by 2+
8%
BSC Glasgow wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Cumnock Juniors 1+ goals
72%
Cumnock Juniors 2+ goals
37%
Cumnock Juniors 3+ goals
14%
BSC Glasgow 1+ goals
91%
BSC Glasgow 2+ goals
69%
BSC Glasgow 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Cumnock Juniors (draw refunded)
24%
BSC Glasgow (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumnock Juniors at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

BSC Glasgow away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumnock Juniors attack 1.00 + BSC Glasgow defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

BSC Glasgow attack 2.43 + Cumnock Juniors defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cumnock Juniors scores more
19%
level
19%
BSC Glasgow scores more
62%

BSC Glasgow at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "BSC Glasgow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cumnock Juniors 0–3 BSC Glasgow

BSC Glasgow beat Cumnock Juniors 3-0 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Townhead Park in Cumnock.